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Markets feel very rangy into the New Year but should find support today from broader risk markets as stocks are soaring on the prospects of larger stimulus checks.I think the underperformance is justified and is likely to continue in 2021 To a large extent, the upside in GBPUSD reflects both broad-based USD weakness and anticipation of real money inflows into the UK in the New Year.Oil prices then fell after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hinted that should oil demand recover next year faster than currently expected, member states could adjust the terms of the current OPEC+ production agreement.After watering down the original January production plan to 500,000 bpd from 2 million bpd, the surging oil prices suggest smaller states would be eager to bring more barrels back to the market.
After stalling out at Brent $52 as the stimulus relief rally gave way to the new variant virus reality which might pose significantly more downside risk due to mobility restrictions than current demand tailwinds for the oil, which sees January oil demand currently on shaky footings.Indeed, the EIP and unemployment checks provide that immediate key consumption bridge through Q1 until the vaccines become more widely distributed.