HotAir hotair.com 19 Jul, 2021 13:45 am

Pollsters stunk at record levels in 2020 -- but why? – HotAir

Pollsters stunk at record levels in 2020 -- but why? – HotAir
Manipulations.

It’s official: Presidential polls had their worst aggregate performance in decades.The AAPOR task force examined 2,858 polls, including 529 national presidential race polls and 1,572 state-level presidential polls.When state-level presidential polls were removed from the sample, the error level was even higher.And it wasn’t just a Trump factor at play, either, the Washington Post concedes: Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

AAPOR essentially threw up its hands on that question: But unlike 2016, when pollsters could pinpoint factors like the education divide as reasons they underestimated Donald Trump and offer specific recommendations to fix the problem, the authors of the new American Association for Public Opinion Research report couldn’t put their finger on the exact problem they face now.Media-based polling has been particularly suspect for a long time, including that performed by the Washington Post.

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